tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2477601753550768474.post225634134185259940..comments2010-10-20T11:43:58.270-05:00Patrick Signorethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13325221237189548356noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2477601753550768474.post-17352485811033586092010-10-20T11:43:58.270-05:002010-10-20T11:43:58.270-05:00(Same comment as below, corrected.)<br /><br />Black Swan,<br /><br />Clients, audience members at a speaking engagements in Ciudad Juárez, and members of the press have been asking my take on this bond issue. My answer is three-part: <br /><br />(1) It&#39;s a sign that emerging market spreads are tightly compressed, product of the ongoing search for yield.<br /><br />(2) It reinforces Mexico&#39;s already strong reputation as possessing at Hacienda brilliant sovereign debt managers. Which in turn supports Mexican sovereign bonds generally and into the medium and long term.<br /><br />(3) It means that the investment community believes that Mexico will have won the war on organized crime within 100 years. In other words, it says nothing about confidence in Mexico&#39;s ability to tame violence in the short or medium term. But it *does* say that investors don&#39;t see Mexico as a failed state! or even as a state in danger of failure. I agree with investors but I also believe that this is something that investors and, especially, Mexicans and their leaders, need to watch. <br /><br />Genevieve SignoretGenevieve Signorethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04982991596556520935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2477601753550768474.post-64807462558368425042010-10-20T11:14:19.472-05:002010-10-20T11:14:19.472-05:00Black Swan,<br /><br />Clients, audience members at a speaking engagemente in Ciudad Juárez, and members of the press have been asking my take on this bond issue. My answer is three-part: (<br /><br />(1) It&#39;s a sign that emerging market spreads are tightly compressed, product of the ongoing search for yield. <br /><br />(2) It reinforces Mexico&#39;s already strong reputation as possessing at Hacienda brilliant sovereign debt managers. Which in turn supports Mexican sovereign bonds generally and into the medium and long term. <br /><br />(3) (This part is somewhat in jest.) It means that the investment community believes that Mexico will have won the war on organized crime within 100 years. (In other words, it says nothing about confidence in Mexico&#39;s ability to tame violence in the short or medium term. But it *does* say that investors don&#39;t see Mexico as a failed state! or even as a state in danger of failure. I agree with investors.)<br /><br />Genevieve SignoretGenevieve Signorethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04982991596556520935noreply@blogger.com