Showing posts with label financial crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial crisis. Show all posts

05 January 2010

Stiglitz en dos idiomas. Stiglitz in two languages.

¡Me encanta el Project Syndicate! Permite leer a Stiglitz sobre regulación financiera en inglés o en español.

Su tesis:
Lo que se necesita es una estrategia de múltiples puntas, que incluya impuestos especiales, mayores requisitos de capital, una supervisión más estrecha y limitaciones al tamaño y las actividades de toma de riesgo.

Al leer las dos versiones, no sólo puedes absorber los comentarios provocativos de Stiglitz sino también adquerir un glosario genial sobre megabancos y riesgo sistémico:

Too-big-to-fail = Demasiado grande para quebrar
Too-complex-to-fail = Demasiado complejo como para quebrar
Too interconnected to fail = Demasiado entrelazadas como para quebrar
Excessive risk taking = Una toma de riesgos excesiva.

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I love Project Syndicate! It gives you Stiglitz on financial regulation in English and Spanish both.

His thesis:
What is required is a multi-prong approach, including special taxes, increased capital requirements, tighter supervision, and limits on size and risk-taking activities.

By reading both versions, you come away with not only Stiglitz's provocative sommentary but also a nifty glossary on megabanks and systemic risk:

Too-big-to-fail = Demasiado grande para quebrar

Too-interconnected to fail = Demasiado entrelazadas como para quebrar
Excessive risk taking = Una toma de riesgos excesiva

03 February 2009

Thinking about the bottom

I'm trying to envision the market bottom. What might trigger it? Yesterday's Financial Times (subscription required) reported something intriguing:
Non-financial companies worldwide raised almost $170bn through bond sales in January, the largest amount for that month on record, according to data from Dealogic, as they rushed to take investor money while it was available.

It turns out that, because of risk aversion, the spreads on prime corporate bond yields are attractively wide for investors; whereas, because of low global monetary policy rates, their levels are attractively low for corporations.

An increase in frequency of news like this could be an early signal that the crisis is peaking and the market is nearing a bottom.

Read the whole thing.

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Intento visualizar el momento en que el mercado tocará fondo. ¿Qué evento lo detonará? Ayer en el Financial Times (se requiere una suscripción) se reportó algo intrigante:

Las corporaciones no financieras en todo el mundo captaron casi $170 MMn por ventas de bonos en enero, el mayor monto para el mes de enero en la historia, según datos de Dealogic, en una carrera para tomar el dinero de los inversionistas mientras estuviera disponible.

Resulta que, por la aversión al riesgo, los diferenciales amplios de los rendimientos que paga la deuda corporativa prime atraen a los inversionistas; mientras que, por las tasas de política monetaria globales bajas, sus niveles bajos atraen a las corporaciones.

Un incremento en la frequencia de noticias de este índole podría ser un signo temprano de que la crisis se acerca a un pico y el mercado a un valle.

Léase el artículo entero
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31 March 2008

"I'm a cow" will remain untranslated

I'm very sorry not to have provided a translation to "I'm a cow". It's beyond my translating skills.

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Siento mucho no haber proporcionado una traducción a "I'm a cow" ("Soy vaca"). Excede mis poderes de traducción.

I'm a cow

For those new to my favorite game, called "Crisis Watching on the Blogs," I'll list some entry points. Now don't worry--they all link to each other. You can enter anywhere.

You'll find that, because this is about crisis watching, most of the players are Bears.

Take Noel Roubini. He's not just any bear--he's a Dark Black Bear. No matter how dark your outlook, his is darker.

I must warn you: this sells, and to capture the revenue, Dark Black Bear has an irritating blog site.

But just try avoiding his blog site! You'll last an hour. He sets the agenda. He is crystal clear. And he was right when I was wrong.

I do sometimes wonder whether by issuing dark prophesies he knows will be amplified through the blogs he can act upon our financial future, guaranteeing that he'll be right.

Then I think, nah. If that were possible, Bernanke would do it. We'd have no crisis.

(Though sometimes I do totter back into superstition and think, won't it be a glorious day when Noel Roubini finally wakes up in a good mood? My guava tree will have euros growing on it!)

Paul Krugman is Grizzly Bear. He gets mean when discussing Republicans.

And mean also seems to sell. Ask The New York Times.

But hell, he gives me access to his brain. Only a generous man could be the teacher that he is.

Brad Setser is Little Unassuming Bear. Though on Black Bear's site he looks like a Little Bull.

Setser is so appealing, so modest and unassuming next to Haughty Bears just described, he makes you want to read line after gory line of forensic tracking down of missing Middle Eastern billions of international reserves.

I'm teasing him. His is wonderful stuff, imperative reading , and holder of links to all other imperative reading.

He steered me, for example, to Professor EconBrowser Bear, who is actually Two Bears. Siamese Twin Bears. I say this because I read them for months before realizing that they were Two Different Bears.

I sometimes get to wondering, who am I in this game? Am I Pooh Bear? (she says modestly because she's from the midwest). Because, when pondering financial crises, I do sometimes feel like a Bear of Little Brain.

But then I think, wait a minute--I'm no bear at all. In the TransEconomics base scenario, all creatures great and small emerge safely out of the woods later on this year. (Of course I also have alternative scenarios, with probabilities assigned to them. Perhaps I'm Professionally Cautious Bear. Or Wimpy Bear.)

I guess this makes me a Bull. But with all my estrogen?

I'm a cow.