Power and Policy Team Update (English)

U.S. Mid-term elections
Several states held primary elections. There was no clear trend in the results: incumbent candidates, candidates backed by party establishment, Tea Party candidates, outsiders, candidates endorsed by Obama...all kinds of candidates won. Read about the mixed results in the Washington Post. On the other hand, Politico says it was a good night for Democrats, because their big establishment candidates won, while the Republican's winning candidates were mostly outsiders who don't look strong for the general election (November 2).

In other election analysis, The Economist warns that the ethics trials of two senior Democrats could spell trouble for the party in November. Congressmembers Charles Rangel and Maxine Waters' districts are safely Democratic, but other districts are not.

Turkey: emergency security summit
Days before the upcoming referendum, Turkey’s Prime Minister convened an emergency security summit in response to information received by the government about plans to create chaos in 30 districts prior to the September 12th referendum. More about the summit and the events leading to it in this Sabah article.

Iraq’s new government
In its Weekly Geopolitical Update, Barclays discusses the absence of a new government in Iraq as the withdrawal of U.S. troops approaches. No alliances have been made, violence has risen, and relationships between Iraq and its neighbors are growing more and more tense.

Patrick Signoret and Isabel Gil

Power and Policy Team update (English)

Iraq’s neighbors
This Los Angeles Times article describes the struggle between some of Iraq’s neighbors to fill the void that the United States might leave. “Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey are all pursuing their agendas and taking sides along a Sunni-Shiite divide. That could become dangerous as U.S. troops withdraw.”

Pakistan
Raza Haider, the leader of the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), was assassinated on Monday. His death set off a wave of violence that has left at least 47 people dead the southern port of Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city. (See NYT report.)

BP Oil Spill
According to the White House 75% percent of the oil spill has been “captured, burned off, evaporated or broken down”. (Source: The Guardian.)

U.S. Supreme Court
Debate on Elena Kagan’s nomination started in the Senate. She has the support of all Democrats and some Republicans, and is expected to be confirmed by the end of the week. (More in NYT.)

Health care reform setback
Voters in Missouri approved a measure “intended to invalidate a crucial element of President Obama's health care law — namely, that most people be required to get health insurance or pay a tax penalty.” The effect of the vote remains uncertain, since the insurance requirement does not take effect until 2014 and since by then the courts “are likely to weigh in on the provision”. (See NYT report.)

Israel and Lebanon
Israeli and Lebanese forces exchanged fire among the border. At least four people were killed, the deadliest incident in the border since 2006. Lebanon and Israel traded accusations, but neither seemed interested in escalating the conflict. (Seen in FT$.)

Patrick Signoret and Isabel Gil

Power and Policy Team update (English)

Isabel Gil y Patrick Signoret

War in Iraq
By August 31st America´s mission in Iraq will end, said president Obama. According to the promises made during his campaign, by the end of this month there will only be 50,000 troops in Iraq, which will be in charge of supporting and training Iraqi security forces. These troops will leave Iraq at the end of 2011. Meanwhile, Iraq is in political deadlock, five months after the parliamentary elections. Here’s a link to Obama's full speech: http://tinyurl.com/24w3j95 (NYT, FT, White House)

Israel
Ban Ki-moon formally announced the creation of a commission to investigate the incident of the Gaza flotilla. Israel, who had previously been reluctant, announced its cooperation on Monday.
(NYT)

Bernanke speech
One week before the next interest rate setting meeting, Bernanke gave a speech in South California where he argued that even though the financial crisis seems to have passed, the U.S. has still a long way to go in order to achieve full economic recovery. “A long way to go” and “caution” were the main words that stuck in markets and newspapers.
(FT)