Concerned about news reports that tensions and perhaps violence are rising in Iraq, I've started identifying blogs that might help me monitor things there.
Juan Cole writes in breezy fashion, providing above all a useful news roundup that in recent days has focussed on human rights. (I say "in recent days" because I'm new to the blog so can't speak of its history.)
Of higher added value---that is, containing less news and more meaty analysis---is Marc Lynch's blog at Foreign Policy.
I'd appreciate help from readers in identifying good Spanish-language blogs on Middle Eastern affairs.
******************
Preocupada por los aumentos en tensión y quizás también violencia en Irak reportados enlas noticias, he comenzado a identificar blogs que me puedan ayudar a monitorear la situación.
Juan Cole escribe de manera ligera, sobre todo apuntando a noticias de importancia y enfocándose, al menos en días recientes, en los derechos humanos. (Digo "en días recientes" porque descubrí el blog hace poco y no puedo hablar de su historia.)
De mayor valor agregado --es decir, con menor contenido de noticias y mayor contenido analítico substantivo-- es el blog de Marc Lynch en el sitio Foreign Policy.
Agradecería la ayuda de mis lectores para identificar buenos blogs sobre asuntos del Medio Oriente.
17 April 2009
03 February 2009
Thinking about the bottom
I'm trying to envision the market bottom. What might trigger it? Yesterday's Financial Times (subscription required) reported something intriguing:
An increase in frequency of news like this could be an early signal that the crisis is peaking and the market is nearing a bottom.
Read the whole thing.
***********
Intento visualizar el momento en que el mercado tocará fondo. ¿Qué evento lo detonará? Ayer en el Financial Times (se requiere una suscripción) se reportó algo intrigante:
Resulta que, por la aversión al riesgo, los diferenciales amplios de los rendimientos que paga la deuda corporativa prime atraen a los inversionistas; mientras que, por las tasas de política monetaria globales bajas, sus niveles bajos atraen a las corporaciones.
Un incremento en la frequencia de noticias de este índole podría ser un signo temprano de que la crisis se acerca a un pico y el mercado a un valle.
Léase el artículo entero.
Non-financial companies worldwide raised almost $170bn through bond sales in January, the largest amount for that month on record, according to data from Dealogic, as they rushed to take investor money while it was available.It turns out that, because of risk aversion, the spreads on prime corporate bond yields are attractively wide for investors; whereas, because of low global monetary policy rates, their levels are attractively low for corporations.
An increase in frequency of news like this could be an early signal that the crisis is peaking and the market is nearing a bottom.
Read the whole thing.
***********
Intento visualizar el momento en que el mercado tocará fondo. ¿Qué evento lo detonará? Ayer en el Financial Times (se requiere una suscripción) se reportó algo intrigante:
Las corporaciones no financieras en todo el mundo captaron casi $170 MMn por ventas de bonos en enero, el mayor monto para el mes de enero en la historia, según datos de Dealogic, en una carrera para tomar el dinero de los inversionistas mientras estuviera disponible.
Resulta que, por la aversión al riesgo, los diferenciales amplios de los rendimientos que paga la deuda corporativa prime atraen a los inversionistas; mientras que, por las tasas de política monetaria globales bajas, sus niveles bajos atraen a las corporaciones.
Un incremento en la frequencia de noticias de este índole podría ser un signo temprano de que la crisis se acerca a un pico y el mercado a un valle.
Léase el artículo entero.
23 January 2009
Cemex arranca operación parque eólica
Reuters:
JUCHITAN DE ZARAGOZA, México, ene 22 (Reuters) - La mexicana Cemex arrancó el jueves la operación de un parque de energía eólica en el sureste de México, con lo que espera reducir un 10 por ciento sus costos de electricidad y evitar la volatilidad del precio de la energía generada por otros medios.(No olviden el symposium sobre cambio climático de IMEF Grupo Querétaro y Club de Industriales en Querétaro el 25 marzo 2009. Entre otros conferencistas, Pablo Rión de Pablo Rión & Asociados platicará sobre las oportunidades de negocios en México en materia de energía solar, eólica e hidráulica. Informes aquí.)
El parque Eurus, ubicado en el estado de Oaxaca, es desarrollado en asociación con la española Acciona (ANA.MC: Cotización) y tendrá una capacidad de generación electricidad de 250 megavatios, que será consumida principalmente por Cemex (CMXCPO.MX: Cotización).
"Eurus tiene uno de los mayores índices de reducción de emisiones por capacidad instalada y, además, es el segundo parque de energía eólica más grande del mundo registrado ante el Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio de las Naciones Unidas", dijo el presidente de Cemex, Lorenzo Zambrano. (Léalo completo aquí.)
Blog roundup after three whole days
Obligatory
Felix Salmon: Nationalize Citigroup
Steve Waldman (hat tip: Felix Salmon): Why nationalize the banks, how to do it, how to manage them once nationalized, and how to reprivatize them
Frightening
Krugman: Corporate bond spreads
Edward Hugh: Chinese GDP is probably contracting
Illuminating
Krugman: Why Spain is in trouble
Krugman: Why fiscal policy
Krugman: What's wrong with Good Bank Bad Bank
Buiter: Why nationalize the banks
Calculated Risk: What A2/P2 measures
Linda Bilmes via Alex Tabarrok: Fiscal stimulus will cause waste and fraud
Newsworthy
Reuters: Citigroup not planning to sell Banamex (Hat tip to Felix Salmon. Although in his blog entry he erroneously refers to Banamex as a monopoly.)
Reuters (hat tip: Guillermo Parra-Bernal): Menor nota Cemex no afectaría reestructuración deuda
Guillermo Parra-Bernal: S&P cuts Vitro ratings
Justin Delacour: Lula cozies up to Chávez
Strategic
John Jansen: MOF official says that $1.00 = 85 yen is BoJ threshhold
Brad Setser: Central bank portfolio rebalancing could help the pound (or not)
New (to me)
Good analysis on Europe: Fistful of Euros
Good tidbits of LatAm corporate news: Guillermo Parra-Bernal at Market Memorandum
Moral
Nationalize (and never EVER go away for three whole days).
Felix Salmon: Nationalize Citigroup
Steve Waldman (hat tip: Felix Salmon): Why nationalize the banks, how to do it, how to manage them once nationalized, and how to reprivatize them
Frightening
Krugman: Corporate bond spreads
Edward Hugh: Chinese GDP is probably contracting
Illuminating
Krugman: Why Spain is in trouble
Krugman: Why fiscal policy
Krugman: What's wrong with Good Bank Bad Bank
Buiter: Why nationalize the banks
Calculated Risk: What A2/P2 measures
Linda Bilmes via Alex Tabarrok: Fiscal stimulus will cause waste and fraud
Newsworthy
Reuters: Citigroup not planning to sell Banamex (Hat tip to Felix Salmon. Although in his blog entry he erroneously refers to Banamex as a monopoly.)
Reuters (hat tip: Guillermo Parra-Bernal): Menor nota Cemex no afectaría reestructuración deuda
Guillermo Parra-Bernal: S&P cuts Vitro ratings
Justin Delacour: Lula cozies up to Chávez
Strategic
John Jansen: MOF official says that $1.00 = 85 yen is BoJ threshhold
Brad Setser: Central bank portfolio rebalancing could help the pound (or not)
New (to me)
Good analysis on Europe: Fistful of Euros
Good tidbits of LatAm corporate news: Guillermo Parra-Bernal at Market Memorandum
Moral
Nationalize (and never EVER go away for three whole days).
19 January 2009
Greenspan, Obama, and Pooh Bear
This is embarrassing, but a long time ago I got sidetracked reading Greenspan's memoirs, The Age of Turbulence, and am only just now finishing it. So here he has already come out with a second edition, and I'm still plodding through the first one.
I'm also finally reading Obama's Dreams of My Father.
You see, my New Year's Resolution #53 is to become The New Jenny, a Serial Monogamist when it comes to books rather than the Polygamist that I had been.
Part 1 of Greenspan's book, a narrative of his life, is fascinating. Part 2 is The Greenspan View on Everything. Now maybe it's because I'm a professional Fed watcher --for years I've made a living in part by reading every word of every Fed speech-- so already knew the Greenspan View on Everything, but for whatever reason, I am finding part 2 dull. I'm tempted to ditch it unfinished.
You may ask, "Jenny, how would you compare and contrast the two men?" Well, Greenspan strikes me as a Very Simple Man, who knows exactly who he is and what he believes. Obama, by contrast, is A Tortured Soul.
You may ask, "Jenny, do you see yourself at all in either these two Great Men?" Yes I do. For example:
Greenspan loves data. Signoret loves data too. She slurps it up.
Obama is a tortured soul. Signoret is a tortured soul too. She broods and can't say anything without prefacing it with long lists of caveats.
Greenspan and Obama have ideologies, but at the end of the day, they're both pragmatists. Signoret is a pragmatist too. She gets things done.
Greenspan and Obama are Famous and Powerful Men.
Signoret is a pragmatist too.
++++++++++
Speaking of Obama, I have to tell you something funny about Winnie the Pooh. (You may ask, but Jenny, what does this have to do with the global economy? I answer you this: EVERYTHING is about the global economy. Why do you think I "specialize" in it?)
Last summer I hired a mathematician who very quickly turned into a budding analyst, and just as quickly into A New Friend.
So one day on our Tea Break at the Quarry Stone Table, we decided to form A Book Club. We scrawled out some rules:
Our Very Speshal Book Club Rools
(Yikes. I just remembered that I once shipped this book as a gift to a colleague who's a Very Refined Former Central Banker. What is it with me and Winnie the Pooh?)
Now, one of the best reasons for having a Book Club at work is that you and your co-workers can sprinkle Sophisticated Literary Allusions into office communication. For example, just the other day Andrés exclaimed, "Get a load of the title of Obama’s stimulus plan! It was written by A. A. Milne." I peered at his print-out of the plan and my eyes found the title: Barack Obama's Plan to Stimulate the Economy and Protect American Families. Indeed, how Milnesque!
We go on like this, you see. Just the other day, I confessed to Andrés, "You know, Andrés, don't tell anyone, but sometimes, when pondering credit derivative swaps, I feel like a Bear of Very Little Brain."
He says it in Spanish: "Todavía soy un Oso de Cerebro Pequeñito en cuestiones de política monetaria de la India".
And then there was last Friday's Skype message of his: "Did you see Japan's new factory orders? -14%. I'd say the global economy is in a Very Deep Pit."
Tell the truth now: don't you wish that you too worked at TransEconomics so you could do the literary thing with us?
I'm also finally reading Obama's Dreams of My Father.
You see, my New Year's Resolution #53 is to become The New Jenny, a Serial Monogamist when it comes to books rather than the Polygamist that I had been.
Part 1 of Greenspan's book, a narrative of his life, is fascinating. Part 2 is The Greenspan View on Everything. Now maybe it's because I'm a professional Fed watcher --for years I've made a living in part by reading every word of every Fed speech-- so already knew the Greenspan View on Everything, but for whatever reason, I am finding part 2 dull. I'm tempted to ditch it unfinished.
You may ask, "Jenny, how would you compare and contrast the two men?" Well, Greenspan strikes me as a Very Simple Man, who knows exactly who he is and what he believes. Obama, by contrast, is A Tortured Soul.
You may ask, "Jenny, do you see yourself at all in either these two Great Men?" Yes I do. For example:
Greenspan loves data. Signoret loves data too. She slurps it up.
Obama is a tortured soul. Signoret is a tortured soul too. She broods and can't say anything without prefacing it with long lists of caveats.
Greenspan and Obama have ideologies, but at the end of the day, they're both pragmatists. Signoret is a pragmatist too. She gets things done.
Greenspan and Obama are Famous and Powerful Men.
Signoret is a pragmatist too.
++++++++++
Speaking of Obama, I have to tell you something funny about Winnie the Pooh. (You may ask, but Jenny, what does this have to do with the global economy? I answer you this: EVERYTHING is about the global economy. Why do you think I "specialize" in it?)
Last summer I hired a mathematician who very quickly turned into a budding analyst, and just as quickly into A New Friend.
So one day on our Tea Break at the Quarry Stone Table, we decided to form A Book Club. We scrawled out some rules:
Our Very Speshal Book Club Rools
- Lend to Club Members, one by one, all your favorite books. ("On the planet?" asked Andrés.)
- Before deciding to quit reading a borrowed book, read it all the way to page 50. ("Do we have to?" asked Andrés. "Yes," I said.)
- When traveling with borrowed books, protect them in Ziploc bags. ("You mean so they don't get wrinkled?" asked Andrés. "Creased", I corrected.)
- Make little jokes that allude to borrowed books for the rest of your lives. ("That's my favorite rule," Andrés said happily.)
(Yikes. I just remembered that I once shipped this book as a gift to a colleague who's a Very Refined Former Central Banker. What is it with me and Winnie the Pooh?)
Now, one of the best reasons for having a Book Club at work is that you and your co-workers can sprinkle Sophisticated Literary Allusions into office communication. For example, just the other day Andrés exclaimed, "Get a load of the title of Obama’s stimulus plan! It was written by A. A. Milne." I peered at his print-out of the plan and my eyes found the title: Barack Obama's Plan to Stimulate the Economy and Protect American Families. Indeed, how Milnesque!
We go on like this, you see. Just the other day, I confessed to Andrés, "You know, Andrés, don't tell anyone, but sometimes, when pondering credit derivative swaps, I feel like a Bear of Very Little Brain."
He says it in Spanish: "Todavía soy un Oso de Cerebro Pequeñito en cuestiones de política monetaria de la India".
And then there was last Friday's Skype message of his: "Did you see Japan's new factory orders? -14%. I'd say the global economy is in a Very Deep Pit."
Tell the truth now: don't you wish that you too worked at TransEconomics so you could do the literary thing with us?
16 January 2009
Brazil's monetary decision, part III
While I find Guillermo Parra-Bernal's forecast for -75pb by the Bank of Brazil perfectly plausible, I am unpersuaded by his claim that the Bank's decision to to help Brazilian producers roll over foreign debt maturing in 2009 raises the probability of a cut that size.
The Bank's help extended to suppliers is financial crisis management: the central bank is acting in its role as lender of last resort in global conditions of tight access to credit. A forecast rate cut of 75bp on January 21 is justified by the outlook for Brazilian inflation.
A rapid pace of disinflation in annual terms and outright deflation in monthly terms will now set in. Industrial output is collapsing, raw materials costs are moderating, demand has eroded so quickly that currency depreciation (of 20+% versus the dollar since the fall of Lehman) is scarcely passing through to consumer prices, and inflation expectations as measured by surveys of professional forecasters have stabilized.
********
Es perfectamente plausible el pronóstico de Guillermo Parra-Bernal's de un recorte de 75bp por el Banco de Brasil. Sin embargo, no me convence su su afirmación de que la decision del Banco Central de ayudar a los productores brasileños a cumplir con deuda por vencerse en el 2009 aumente la probabilidad de un recorte de esa magnitud.
Dicha medida del Banco Central es una medida para lidiar con la crisis crediticia: BCB está ejerciendo su papel de prestamista de última instancia. Una proyección de un recorte de 75pb el 21 de enero se justifica por el panorama de los precios al consumidor.
Se prevé ahora para los índices de precios rapída desinflación en términos interanuales y franca deflación en términos intermensuales. La producción industrial se colapsa, los costos de las materias primas se moderan, la demanda se erosiona tan rápido que la depreciación de la moneda (de 20+% frente al dólar desde la caída de Lehman) prácticamente no se ha traspasado a los precios internos y las expectativas sobre la inflación medidas por las encuestas a los pronosticadores profesionales ya se estabilizaron.
The Bank's help extended to suppliers is financial crisis management: the central bank is acting in its role as lender of last resort in global conditions of tight access to credit. A forecast rate cut of 75bp on January 21 is justified by the outlook for Brazilian inflation.
A rapid pace of disinflation in annual terms and outright deflation in monthly terms will now set in. Industrial output is collapsing, raw materials costs are moderating, demand has eroded so quickly that currency depreciation (of 20+% versus the dollar since the fall of Lehman) is scarcely passing through to consumer prices, and inflation expectations as measured by surveys of professional forecasters have stabilized.
********
Es perfectamente plausible el pronóstico de Guillermo Parra-Bernal's de un recorte de 75bp por el Banco de Brasil. Sin embargo, no me convence su su afirmación de que la decision del Banco Central de ayudar a los productores brasileños a cumplir con deuda por vencerse en el 2009 aumente la probabilidad de un recorte de esa magnitud.
Dicha medida del Banco Central es una medida para lidiar con la crisis crediticia: BCB está ejerciendo su papel de prestamista de última instancia. Una proyección de un recorte de 75pb el 21 de enero se justifica por el panorama de los precios al consumidor.
Se prevé ahora para los índices de precios rapída desinflación en términos interanuales y franca deflación en términos intermensuales. La producción industrial se colapsa, los costos de las materias primas se moderan, la demanda se erosiona tan rápido que la depreciación de la moneda (de 20+% frente al dólar desde la caída de Lehman) prácticamente no se ha traspasado a los precios internos y las expectativas sobre la inflación medidas por las encuestas a los pronosticadores profesionales ya se estabilizaron.
15 January 2009
Krauze: Venezuela's democracy is better than Mexico's
No encontré en los blogs de Letras Libres lo que buscaba (algo sobre cambio climático o la violencia en Gaza), pero sí una interesante comparación por Enrique Krauze de las culturas políticas venezolana y mexicana. Puede que su tesis les sorprenda, pero está en sintonía con mi impresión del nivel de la discusión en Caracas cuando visité en el 2005:
I didn't find what I was looking for in the Letras Libres blogs (something about climate change or the violence in Gaza), but I did find an interesting comparison by Enrique Krauze of Venezuelan and Mexican political cultures. You may find Krauze's thesis surprising, but it jives with my own impression of political debates in Caracas in 2005.
En términos culturales, la democracia venezolana es superior a la mexicana. Lo es, en primer lugar, por el nivel del debate nacional. A despecho de su crispación y envenenamiento, en Venezuela la discusión de los asuntos públicos es más seria, variada, intensa y focalizada que en México. (... Continuar leyendo la entrada de Krauze.)*****
I didn't find what I was looking for in the Letras Libres blogs (something about climate change or the violence in Gaza), but I did find an interesting comparison by Enrique Krauze of Venezuelan and Mexican political cultures. You may find Krauze's thesis surprising, but it jives with my own impression of political debates in Caracas in 2005.
In cultural terms, Venezuela's democracy is superior to Mexico's. For one thing, the level of Venezuelan political debate is loftier. Despite its edge and venom, Venezuelan debate on public affairs is more considered, motley, intense, and focussed than in Mexico. (...Keep reading Krauze's post.)
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