16:02 ET
DJIA: -0.36% to 10636.38 (Close)
S&P 500: -0.48% to 1120.46 (Close)
Mexico IPC: -0.15% to 32768.08 (Close)
Brazil Bovespa: -0.76% to 67997.36 (Close)
FTSE 100: -0.01% to 5396.48 (Close)
DAX: +0.25% to 6307.91 (Close)
Nikkei 225: +1.29% to 9694.01 (Close)
Hang Seng: +0.21% to 21457.66 (Close)
USD-EUR: 0.7557
USD-MXN: -0.0018% to 12.582
USD-JPY: -0.7428% to 85.857
EUR-USD: +0.3949% to 1.3232
EMBI+Mex: 140
Cetes 28d: +0.009% to 4.61%
Aug 02 Aug 03
Ted spread 28 27
T bill 3m 0.16 0.16
USD Libor 3m 0.44 0.43
Stocks
US stocks fell and traded below yesterday's levels all day today on disappointing reports on home sales, factory orders, and consumer spending.
Bovespa, having advanced for 11 days straight (+9.9%), fell today after investors learned that industrial output had fallen in June by 1% from its May level.
European stocks changed little during the day. FTSE 100 fell by 0.01%, while the German DAX climbed 0.25%. DAX reached its highest level since April 26 despite the below-forecast results for U.S. home sales and factory orders.
Asian stocks rose after yesterday's better-than-expected reports on US manufacturing.
(FT, Bloomberg)
Commodities
Oil prices continue to move up on news that a tropical depression was approaching the Gulf of Mexico. After having risen by 3% yesterday, the WTI forward-month oil contract again advanced, by 1%, to $82.38. This is its highest level since last May.
Wheat prices declined after Russia reported that not all crops had been lost in the recent drought and that export volumes would hold stable. Analysts, however, warn that if Russian producers meet their export quotas, domestic shortages may ensue. Calls for a pause in grain exports have grown louder. We will continue to monitor the Russian wheat situation.
(FT, Bloomberg)
Patrick Signoret and Georgina Lara
03 August 2010
Power and Policy Team update (español)
Irán
El presidente Iraní Mahmud Ahmadineyad propuso a Obama un encuentro “cara a cara” para discutir las sanciones impuestas a Irán por su programa nuclear. El presidente afirmó que ninguna iniciativa ha logrado detener el programa nuclear iraní, que sigue argumentando que no tiene fines bélicos sino objetivos civiles. (El País)
Narcoviolencia en México
El titular del CISEN, Guillermo Valdés, afirmó que este gobierno no ha logrado reducir la violencia derivada del narcotráfico y reveló que en el periodo presidencial de Calderón se reportan ya 28 mil muertes. (Reforma)
Por otro lado, el presidente Calderón argumenta que su gobierno no ha sabido explicar la lucha contra el narcotráfico. Afirmó que a pesar de que el gobierno federal no desea ocultar información, no tiene control sobre la información de los estados. (El Universal)
Se plantea limitar depósitos en pesos
La Asocación de Bancos de México propuso limitar los depósitos a un máximo de 50 mil pesos en efectivo, para combatir el lavado de dinero. (Reforma)
Efectos de derrame de petróleo en México
México ha gastado 35 millones de dólares en monitoreo, sobrevuelos y recorridos para tener la información necesaria para combatir el derrame de petróleo. Hasta ahora no se ha detectado presencia de crudo en territorio mexicano (se había previsto que llegara a finales del año). El Secretario de Medio Ambiente aseguró que el gobierno mexicano pedirá al de Estados Unidos por los gastos. (Reforma)
EUA: acción del gobierno federal frena más leyes antiimigrantes
Otros estados que habían considerado adoptar leyes como la de Arizona han decidido no hacerlo todavía, después de que el gobierno federal haya intentado exitosamente de bloquear las partes más controversiales de la Ley Arizona. (Reforma)
Patrick Signoret e Isabel Gil
El presidente Iraní Mahmud Ahmadineyad propuso a Obama un encuentro “cara a cara” para discutir las sanciones impuestas a Irán por su programa nuclear. El presidente afirmó que ninguna iniciativa ha logrado detener el programa nuclear iraní, que sigue argumentando que no tiene fines bélicos sino objetivos civiles. (El País)
Narcoviolencia en México
El titular del CISEN, Guillermo Valdés, afirmó que este gobierno no ha logrado reducir la violencia derivada del narcotráfico y reveló que en el periodo presidencial de Calderón se reportan ya 28 mil muertes. (Reforma)
Por otro lado, el presidente Calderón argumenta que su gobierno no ha sabido explicar la lucha contra el narcotráfico. Afirmó que a pesar de que el gobierno federal no desea ocultar información, no tiene control sobre la información de los estados. (El Universal)
Se plantea limitar depósitos en pesos
La Asocación de Bancos de México propuso limitar los depósitos a un máximo de 50 mil pesos en efectivo, para combatir el lavado de dinero. (Reforma)
Efectos de derrame de petróleo en México
México ha gastado 35 millones de dólares en monitoreo, sobrevuelos y recorridos para tener la información necesaria para combatir el derrame de petróleo. Hasta ahora no se ha detectado presencia de crudo en territorio mexicano (se había previsto que llegara a finales del año). El Secretario de Medio Ambiente aseguró que el gobierno mexicano pedirá al de Estados Unidos por los gastos. (Reforma)
EUA: acción del gobierno federal frena más leyes antiimigrantes
Otros estados que habían considerado adoptar leyes como la de Arizona han decidido no hacerlo todavía, después de que el gobierno federal haya intentado exitosamente de bloquear las partes más controversiales de la Ley Arizona. (Reforma)
Patrick Signoret e Isabel Gil
Power and Policy Team update (English)
Italy no-confidence vote on Wednesday
The vote will be a test to see if Berlusconi’s ruling coalition can survive the defection a breakaway faction of 33 members (Gianfranco Fini and his new Future and Liberty group). It’s not clear what the result will be. The motion was brought by opposition parties, not by the breakaway faction, and the Future and Liberty group considers itself center-right (same as ruling government coalition).
(FT)
U.S. Fed considers “symbolic shift”
The Wall Street Journal reports that the Fed is considering a “modest but symbolically important change in the management of their massive securities portfolio “ in a meeting next week, in the wake of a slowdown in growth. It might use the cash it receives fom mature mortgage-bond holdings to buy new mortgage or Treasury bonds, instead of allowing its portfolio to slowly shrink. Here is the complete article.
Koreas
North Korea continues to threaten the South with retaliation, in response to a series of war drills planned by the South to start on Thursday. These exercises are considered by the North as a direct military invasion. (NYT)
Pakistan and Afghanistan
According to the Pakistani president, the war against the Taliban is being lost. The international community, he said, has failed to win hearts and minds. These declarations were made just before his visit to the UK, with whom relations are tense after the accusations following the document leaks, which accused Pakistan of playing a double game in the Afghan war, and David Cameron’s cozy visit to India. (The Guardian)
Patrick Signoret and Isabel Gil
The vote will be a test to see if Berlusconi’s ruling coalition can survive the defection a breakaway faction of 33 members (Gianfranco Fini and his new Future and Liberty group). It’s not clear what the result will be. The motion was brought by opposition parties, not by the breakaway faction, and the Future and Liberty group considers itself center-right (same as ruling government coalition).
(FT)
U.S. Fed considers “symbolic shift”
The Wall Street Journal reports that the Fed is considering a “modest but symbolically important change in the management of their massive securities portfolio “ in a meeting next week, in the wake of a slowdown in growth. It might use the cash it receives fom mature mortgage-bond holdings to buy new mortgage or Treasury bonds, instead of allowing its portfolio to slowly shrink. Here is the complete article.
Koreas
North Korea continues to threaten the South with retaliation, in response to a series of war drills planned by the South to start on Thursday. These exercises are considered by the North as a direct military invasion. (NYT)
Pakistan and Afghanistan
According to the Pakistani president, the war against the Taliban is being lost. The international community, he said, has failed to win hearts and minds. These declarations were made just before his visit to the UK, with whom relations are tense after the accusations following the document leaks, which accused Pakistan of playing a double game in the Afghan war, and David Cameron’s cozy visit to India. (The Guardian)
Patrick Signoret and Isabel Gil
Business Cycle Team update (English)
Mariana Bulos and Patrick Signoret
PMIs: China’s falls, India’s rises
China’s PMI for July fell below 50, reporting a final 49.4. Employment was the only index that improved. But the non-manufacturing PMI stays at 57.8 for July. In India, manufacturing PMI for July rose 0.6% to 57.6. PMI and exports data reinforce the JPMorgan view that there will be a new 25bp raise in the policy rates on September 16.
(Credit Suisse, JPMorgan)
Mexico’s Banxico survey
Inflation expectations for the end of 2010 (4.59%), end 2011 (3.90%), average for 2011-2014 (3.69%) and average for 2015-2018 (3.53%) were all slightly lower than in the June survey.
The survey’s median expectation for GDP growth was 4.5% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011.
(Banxico, Credit Suisse)
Euro Area producer price index
Producer prices grew a 12m 3.0% in June, after a rate of 3.1% in May. Barclays notes that this increase in producer prices has still not been passed on to core consumer prices.
(Barclays)
Income and spending in United States
June personal income and consumer spending had zero growth in June, while the consensus forecast was 0.2% and 0.1%). This was in line with the softer than expected GDP growth rate published last Friday.
(Barclays)
PMIs: China’s falls, India’s rises
China’s PMI for July fell below 50, reporting a final 49.4. Employment was the only index that improved. But the non-manufacturing PMI stays at 57.8 for July. In India, manufacturing PMI for July rose 0.6% to 57.6. PMI and exports data reinforce the JPMorgan view that there will be a new 25bp raise in the policy rates on September 16.
(Credit Suisse, JPMorgan)
Mexico’s Banxico survey
Inflation expectations for the end of 2010 (4.59%), end 2011 (3.90%), average for 2011-2014 (3.69%) and average for 2015-2018 (3.53%) were all slightly lower than in the June survey.
The survey’s median expectation for GDP growth was 4.5% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011.
(Banxico, Credit Suisse)
Euro Area producer price index
Producer prices grew a 12m 3.0% in June, after a rate of 3.1% in May. Barclays notes that this increase in producer prices has still not been passed on to core consumer prices.
(Barclays)
Income and spending in United States
June personal income and consumer spending had zero growth in June, while the consensus forecast was 0.2% and 0.1%). This was in line with the softer than expected GDP growth rate published last Friday.
(Barclays)
Power and Policy Team update (Español)
Isabel Gil y Patrick Signoret
Frontera México-EUA
El dispositivo de 1,200 soldados que el presidente Obama envió a reforzar la seguridad en la frontera estará funcionando plenamente a finales de septiembre.
(El País)
Estados donde estaba “Nacho” habían sido más violentos
En los meses previos a la muerte de “Nacho” Coronel (líder de cártel de drogas muerto la semana pasada en operativo militar), los tres estados que controlaba habían tenido un alza enorme en la violencia según Reforma. Estos estados son Jalisco, Nayarit y Colima. Seguir el número de muertes por estado podría ser una forma interesante de ver los efectos de los cambios de líderes y conflictos entre los cárteles de drogas.
(Reforma)
Patrimonio gigantesco del SME
El líder de los disidentes del SME, Alejandro Muñoz, pide repartir los bienes del sindicato equitativamente entre los trabajadores. Estima que cada trabajador podría recibir 300 mil pesos. Él y sus seguidores se oponen al liderazgo de Martín Esparza.
(Reforma)
Amenazas a sheriff de Arizona
Fox News difundió imágenes y sonido de mensajes de texto y voz ofreciendo dinero a quien asesine al sheriff Joe Arpaio, quien es conocido por ser duro contra los imigrantes ilegales. Los mensajes ofrecen 1 millón de dólares y proveen un número de teléfono para conseguir instrucciones. Sin embargo, esta noticia no parece haber sido importante en los grandes diarios de EUA.
(Reforma)
Frontera México-EUA
El dispositivo de 1,200 soldados que el presidente Obama envió a reforzar la seguridad en la frontera estará funcionando plenamente a finales de septiembre.
(El País)
Estados donde estaba “Nacho” habían sido más violentos
En los meses previos a la muerte de “Nacho” Coronel (líder de cártel de drogas muerto la semana pasada en operativo militar), los tres estados que controlaba habían tenido un alza enorme en la violencia según Reforma. Estos estados son Jalisco, Nayarit y Colima. Seguir el número de muertes por estado podría ser una forma interesante de ver los efectos de los cambios de líderes y conflictos entre los cárteles de drogas.
(Reforma)
Patrimonio gigantesco del SME
El líder de los disidentes del SME, Alejandro Muñoz, pide repartir los bienes del sindicato equitativamente entre los trabajadores. Estima que cada trabajador podría recibir 300 mil pesos. Él y sus seguidores se oponen al liderazgo de Martín Esparza.
(Reforma)
Amenazas a sheriff de Arizona
Fox News difundió imágenes y sonido de mensajes de texto y voz ofreciendo dinero a quien asesine al sheriff Joe Arpaio, quien es conocido por ser duro contra los imigrantes ilegales. Los mensajes ofrecen 1 millón de dólares y proveen un número de teléfono para conseguir instrucciones. Sin embargo, esta noticia no parece haber sido importante en los grandes diarios de EUA.
(Reforma)
Power and Policy Team update (English)
Isabel Gil y Patrick Signoret
War in Iraq
By August 31st America´s mission in Iraq will end, said president Obama. According to the promises made during his campaign, by the end of this month there will only be 50,000 troops in Iraq, which will be in charge of supporting and training Iraqi security forces. These troops will leave Iraq at the end of 2011. Meanwhile, Iraq is in political deadlock, five months after the parliamentary elections. Here’s a link to Obama's full speech: http://tinyurl.com/24w3j95 (NYT, FT, White House)
Israel
Ban Ki-moon formally announced the creation of a commission to investigate the incident of the Gaza flotilla. Israel, who had previously been reluctant, announced its cooperation on Monday.
(NYT)
Bernanke speech
One week before the next interest rate setting meeting, Bernanke gave a speech in South California where he argued that even though the financial crisis seems to have passed, the U.S. has still a long way to go in order to achieve full economic recovery. “A long way to go” and “caution” were the main words that stuck in markets and newspapers.
(FT)
War in Iraq
By August 31st America´s mission in Iraq will end, said president Obama. According to the promises made during his campaign, by the end of this month there will only be 50,000 troops in Iraq, which will be in charge of supporting and training Iraqi security forces. These troops will leave Iraq at the end of 2011. Meanwhile, Iraq is in political deadlock, five months after the parliamentary elections. Here’s a link to Obama's full speech: http://tinyurl.com/24w3j95 (NYT, FT, White House)
Israel
Ban Ki-moon formally announced the creation of a commission to investigate the incident of the Gaza flotilla. Israel, who had previously been reluctant, announced its cooperation on Monday.
(NYT)
Bernanke speech
One week before the next interest rate setting meeting, Bernanke gave a speech in South California where he argued that even though the financial crisis seems to have passed, the U.S. has still a long way to go in order to achieve full economic recovery. “A long way to go” and “caution” were the main words that stuck in markets and newspapers.
(FT)
Financial Market Team update
Georgina Lara y Patrick Signoret
13:07 ET
DJIA: +1.75% to 10649.1
S&P 500: +1.93% to 1122.88
Mexico IPC: +1.14% to 32676.39
Brazil Bovespa: +1.59% to 68587.32
FTSE 100: +2.65% to 5397.11 c
DAX: +2.34% to 6292.13 c
Nikkei 225: +0.35% to 9570.31 c
Hang Seng: +1.82% to 21412.79 c
USD-EUR: 0.759
EUR-USD: +0.9539% to 1.3176
USD-JPY: +0.0174% to 86.485
USD-MXN: -0.5749% to 12.573
Corn 1m: 0% to 406.75
WTI future 1m: +3.14% to 81.43
Gold spot 1m: +0.08% to 1184.8
Stocks
********
U.S. stocks are climbing after last week's fall after today’s release of positive construction spending and manufacturing reports. Both surpassed market expectations. Better-than-estimated earnings at companies may also have increased confidence in the economic recovery.
European stocks advanced in general after HSBC and BNP Paribas rallied. Production indices in the Euro Area showed mainly increases. Germany's situation as the biggest economy in Europe and the one leading the pace to economic recovery in the zone may have boosted investors’ optimism. UK stocks reached the highest level in two and a half months.
Asian stocks advanced following PMI reports that made investors confident that the region is growing.
(FT, Bloomberg)
Commodities
***********
U.S. crude oil continues last week’s trend and has risen more than 3%. The rise in oil prices may be due to the controlled supply by OPEC countries and the growing demand by some emerging markets like China.
Gold also continues to rise after several days of falling.
Soybean and corn prices rose again reaching the highest level since January after the drought in Russia, and other parts of Europe, harmed crops. The demand is now being satisfied by U.S. production.
13:07 ET
DJIA: +1.75% to 10649.1
S&P 500: +1.93% to 1122.88
Mexico IPC: +1.14% to 32676.39
Brazil Bovespa: +1.59% to 68587.32
FTSE 100: +2.65% to 5397.11 c
DAX: +2.34% to 6292.13 c
Nikkei 225: +0.35% to 9570.31 c
Hang Seng: +1.82% to 21412.79 c
USD-EUR: 0.759
EUR-USD: +0.9539% to 1.3176
USD-JPY: +0.0174% to 86.485
USD-MXN: -0.5749% to 12.573
Corn 1m: 0% to 406.75
WTI future 1m: +3.14% to 81.43
Gold spot 1m: +0.08% to 1184.8
Stocks
********
U.S. stocks are climbing after last week's fall after today’s release of positive construction spending and manufacturing reports. Both surpassed market expectations. Better-than-estimated earnings at companies may also have increased confidence in the economic recovery.
European stocks advanced in general after HSBC and BNP Paribas rallied. Production indices in the Euro Area showed mainly increases. Germany's situation as the biggest economy in Europe and the one leading the pace to economic recovery in the zone may have boosted investors’ optimism. UK stocks reached the highest level in two and a half months.
Asian stocks advanced following PMI reports that made investors confident that the region is growing.
(FT, Bloomberg)
Commodities
***********
U.S. crude oil continues last week’s trend and has risen more than 3%. The rise in oil prices may be due to the controlled supply by OPEC countries and the growing demand by some emerging markets like China.
Gold also continues to rise after several days of falling.
Soybean and corn prices rose again reaching the highest level since January after the drought in Russia, and other parts of Europe, harmed crops. The demand is now being satisfied by U.S. production.
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