03 August 2010

Business Cycle Team update (English)

Mariana Bulos and Patrick Signoret

PMIs: China’s falls, India’s rises
China’s PMI for July fell below 50, reporting a final 49.4. Employment was the only index that improved. But the non-manufacturing PMI stays at 57.8 for July. In India, manufacturing PMI for July rose 0.6% to 57.6. PMI and exports data reinforce the JPMorgan view that there will be a new 25bp raise in the policy rates on September 16.
(Credit Suisse, JPMorgan)

Mexico’s Banxico survey

Inflation expectations for the end of 2010 (4.59%), end 2011 (3.90%), average for 2011-2014 (3.69%) and average for 2015-2018 (3.53%) were all slightly lower than in the June survey.
The survey’s median expectation for GDP growth was 4.5% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011.
(Banxico, Credit Suisse)

Euro Area producer price index
Producer prices grew a 12m 3.0% in June, after a rate of 3.1% in May. Barclays notes that this increase in producer prices has still not been passed on to core consumer prices.

Income and spending in United States
June personal income and consumer spending had zero growth in June, while the consensus forecast was 0.2% and 0.1%). This was in line with the softer than expected GDP growth rate published last Friday.

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